I had hoped to avoid too much mention of the coronavirus pandemic at this point. But, here we are again. Not only that, but this post is indulging my aviation geek #AvGeek, so, please bear with me!
A BA 747 arrives over Myrtle Avenue next to LHR June 2019
This blog post is prompted by two coinciding factors. One is the forced withdrawal from service of the Boeing 747 by British Airways (among others). Second, this should be RIAT2020 time. The coronavirus pandemic has terminated both of these.
The 747 Jumbo Jet has been the Queen of the Skies for more than 50 years. I’ve been a periodic passenger on 747s over about 40 of them. While by today's standards it is an outdated design, it says a lot that it still cruises faster than its current upstart successors (747 933km/h; Airbus A350 903 km/h). But, when an airline can transport passengers on a modern, lightweight aircraft with two highly fuel-efficient engines, instead of the 747's four, the cost per passenger-kilometre and reduced emissions means the writing was always on the wall for the 747. In this sense, SARS-CoV-2 has accelerated a change that was always going to come. Passenger numbers have collapsed in the wake of the pandemic to the point that most airlines are in an existential crisis; withdrawal of surplus capacity has to start with the lowest yielding aircraft.
British Airways Boeing 747-400 G-BNLI Feb 2014
British Airways Boeing 747-436 G-CIVN June 2019
Airlines are also seen as vectors of the virus in the same way that mosquitoes are vectors of the malaria parasite: you can see this in the routes of transmission, which mirror the airline routes. Flight attendants worry that they are part of this, even though they are gowned up in PPE; all this, even with the best will in the world, can scarcely reassure potential passengers. A further staggering observation is the extraordinary way that the D614G variant of SARS-CoV-2, which arose in Europe sometime in Feb by a spontaneous single nucleotide mutation, took over the world in a month; this could only happen in the era of air travel.
Until everyone is happy that a vaccine will protect them (and Lord knows when that will be) the era of mass long-haul passenger transportation by air is in deep freeze.
It makes no sense, in this context, to preserve spare capacity that may not come back into use in any foreseeable future.
A formation flypast by the BOAC-liveried BA Boeing 747-436 G-BYGC and the Red Arrows at RIAT 2019, July 2019
A close-up of part of the formation through the heat haze
This time last year, BA was celebrating the 100th anniversary of the founding of the company from which it claims descent. As part of this, at RIAT2019 a British Airways Boeing 747 wearing BOAC heritage livery teamed up with the Red Arrows for a formation flypast.
A year on and SARS-CoV-2 has laid waste to this. RIAT2020 has been cancelled, as it would simply be impossible to operate the biggest airshow in the country in a safe manner. We can only hope that this time next year, things will have abated enough for RIAT2021 to go ahead.
So, here are some pictures to commemorate the passing of the era of the Queen. The departure of the 747s leaves us in an altogether greyer world. One final note: I'm just including BA 747s in this post: I may come back to this topic later on, with some Virgin Atlantic 747s.
Boeing 747-436 G-CIVC departs LHR June 2019